NFL / 01LIVE
NFL Edge Board
Elo blended 50/50 with market power ratings. A game only makes the card when the model disagrees with the line by 1.5–3 points on a side or 2–4 on a total.
RECORD28–19–1
UNITS+5.09
ROI+11.5%
SIX MODELS · NFL · NHL · NBA · CBB
Numbers first.
Picks second.
Daily model leans for football, hockey and basketball. Every lean is posted before the game and graded in public — the losing nights included.
NFL GAME MODEL28–19–1+5.09u · 8 weeks · +11.5% ROI
NFL PROPS · WK 8+41.1u361–288 · +8.3% ROI
NHL PROPS · STRONG54.2%344 of 635 hit · +60.9u
NHL BACKTEST+11.9%ROI · 575 picks · 2014–2022
01 — TODAY · FRI NOV 6
The board
Blurred leans unlock with membership — your first 30 days are free.Unlock the full board →
02 — THE MODELS
Six boards. One rule: no edge, no lean.
Each model prices the game or the player on its own, compares that to the sportsbook, and only posts when the gap clears its threshold.
NFL / 02TRACKED
NFL Prop Board
Full projection ranges for every rostered player across 1,200+ props a week — yards, receptions, attempts, longest plays and anytime TDs.
WEEK 8361–288
UNITS+41.1
ROI+8.3%
NHL / 03LIVE
NHL Edge Board
Moneylines only, and only at a 5%+ edge after blending the model 40/60 with the de-vigged market. Goalies, rest, back-to-backs and travel all priced in.
SEASON4–5
UNITS−0.01
AVG CLV+1.4%
NHL / 04TRACKED
NHL Prop Board
Shots, saves, hits and blocks for every skater and goalie. Strong leans need the model at least 6 points above the book's implied chance.
HIT RATE54.2%
UNITS+60.9
DAYS4
NBA / 05TRACKED
NBA Edge Board
A team model for moneylines, spreads and totals plus a separate player-prop model. Tracked publicly before any lean counts toward the paid record.
STATUSPaper
SLATESDaily
RECORDSoon
CBB / 06IN BUILD
CBB Edge Board
Men's college basketball. Totals post once both teams have five games played — first card plays expected late November.
STATUSBuild
FIRST CARDLate Nov
RECORD—
03 — THE RECORD
Every lean. Graded. Never deleted.
NFL game model
CUMULATIVE UNITS BY WEEK+5.09u
28–19–1 · +11.5% ROI · weeks 1–8
| WEEK | RECORD | UNITS |
|---|
All boards
SEASON TO DATE| BOARD | STATUS | RECORD | UNITS | ROI / HIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL game model | LIVE | 28–19–1 | +5.09 | +11.5% |
| NFL props (Wk 8) | TRACKED | 361–288 | +41.09 | +8.3% |
| NHL moneylines | LIVE | 4–5 | −0.01 | CLV +1.4% |
| NHL props (strong) | TRACKED | 344–291 | +60.91 | 54.2% hit |
| NHL totals | TRACKED | 2–4 | −1.75 | — |
| NHL fav −1.5 | TRACKED | 6–1 | — | — |
Recent NHL moneylines
GRADED| DATE | LEAN | ODDS | FINAL | RESULT |
|---|
01Posted before the game and locked at the timestamp — no edits after the fact.
02Graded at the number posted, with closing-line value tracked so you can see whether the model beat the market.
03Live boards and tracked boards are always labeled separately. Stakes are shown in units only.
04 — BACKTEST · NHL EDGE BOARD
Tested on 27,000 games before a single lean posted.
Each season was predicted by a model trained only on the seasons before it, then graded against real closing moneylines.
+11.9%
ROI on the 5% edge rule, 2014–2022
575
picks · about 64 per season
7 of 9
seasons profitable
42.1%
win rate — mostly underdogs, so the payouts carry it
Honest expectations: the 5% cutoff was chosen after seeing these results, so the backtest is a best case. The live record and closing-line value are the real test, and both are published above as they happen.
05 — ACCESS
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